We present a machine learning system for forecasting forced displacement populations deployed at the Danish Refugee Council (DRC). The system, named Foresight, supports long term forecasts aimed at humanitarian response planning. It is explainable, providing evidence and context supporting the forecast. Additionally, it supports scenarios, whereby analysts are able to generate forecasts under alternative conditions. The system has been in deployment since early 2020 and powers several downstream business functions within DRC. It is central to our annual Global Displacement Report which informs our response planning. We describe the system, key outcomes, lessons learnt, along with technical limitations and challenges in deploying machine learning systems in the humanitarian sector.
Paperid:1774
Authors:Martijn Oldenhof, Gergely Ács, Balázs Pejó, Ansgar Schuffenhauer, Nicholas Holway, Noé Sturm, Arne Dieckmann, Oliver Fortmeier, Eric Boniface, Clément Mayer, Arnaud Gohier, Peter Schmidtke, Ritsuya Niwayama, Dieter Kopecky, Lewis Mervin, Prakash Chandra Rathi, Lukas Friedrich, András Formanek, Peter Antal, Jordon Rahaman, Adam Zalewski, Wouter Heyndrickx, Ezron Oluoch, Manuel Stößel, Michal Vančo, David Endico, Fabien Gelus, Thaïs de Boisfossé, Adrien Darbier, Ashley Nicollet, Matthieu Blottière, Maria Telenczuk, Van Tien Nguyen, Thibaud Martinez, Camille Boillet, Kelvin Moutet, Alexandre Picosson, Aurélien Gasser, Inal Djafar, Antoine Simon, Ádám Arany, Jaak Simm, Yves Moreau, Ola Engkvist, Hugo Ceulemans, Camille Marini, Mathieu Galtier
KU Leuven, ESAT-STADIUS, BME-HIT, CrySyS Lab, BME-HIT, CrySyS Lab, Novartis Institutes for BioMedical Research, Novartis Institutes for BioMedical Research, Novartis Institutes for BioMedical Research, Bayer AG, Bayer AG, Substra Foundation - Labelia Labs, Substra Foundation - Labelia Labs, Institut de recherches Servier, Discngine, Institut de recherches Servier, Boehringer Ingelheim RCV GmbH & Co KG, Molecular AI, Discovery Sciences, R&D, AstraZeneca, R&D IT, AstraZeneca, Merck KGaA, Global Research & Development, KU Leuven, ESAT-STADIUS
BME-MIT, BME-MIT, Pillar Biosciences, Inc., Amgen Research (Munich) GmbH, Janssen Pharmaceutica NV, Kubermatic, Kubermatic, Kubermatic, Owkin, Owkin, Owkin, Owkin, Owkin, Owkin, Owkin, Owkin, Owkin, Owkin, Owkin, Owkin, Owkin, Owkin, Owkin, KU Leuven, ESAT-STADIUS, KU Leuven, ESAT-STADIUS, KU Leuven, ESAT-STADIUS, Molecular AI, Discovery Sciences, R&D, AstraZeneca
Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Chalmers University of Technology, Janssen Pharmaceutica NV, Owkin, Owkin